PERSONAL FINANCE / QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
REF. FA2026-01
Empirical Cash-Flow Assessment — With Job Income & Starting Liquidity
Fall 2026 Financial Position
A statistical assessment of tuition obligations, monthly cash flow, and the trajectory toward an $11,000 savings target — including $13/hr job income and $4,673 starting liquidity
$10,098.00Total Charges
$3,366.00Paid To Date
$6,732.00Balance Due
$1,399.07Monthly Expenses
$2,535.00Monthly Income (Job)
+$13,137.7812-Mo Projected Balance
Compiled from stated obligations + job income ($13/hr, 9h/day, 5d/wk) + starting liquidity $4,673
n = 1 · deterministic projection
Part I
Payment Obligations & Semester Charges
The Fall 2026 balance is structured as three equal installments of $3,366.00, applied sequentially against tuition, the non-resident fee, and the international fee. This section lays out the raw obligation set before any cash-flow modeling is applied.
Section 1.1
Charge Ledger
| Description | Charge | Payment Method | Due Date | Installment | Status |
|---|
| Tuition | $4,000.00 | Electronic Check | Aug 15, 2026 | $3,366.00 | Paid |
| Non-Resident Fee | $5,000.00 | Flexible Payment Plan | Sep 21, 2026 | $3,366.00 | Pending |
| International Fee | $1,073.00 | Flexible Payment Plan | Oct 19, 2026 | $3,366.00 | Pending |
| Blazer Flex Plan Fee | $25.00 | — | — | — | Included in total |
| Total | $10,098.00 | | | $10,098.00 | |
Observation
The three stated installments sum to $3,366.00 × 3 = $10,098.00, exactly matching total charges. This confirms the "Flexible Payment Plan" divides the balance into three equal thirds rather than billing each fee independently — the fee-level allocation in the ledger above is an accounting label, not a reflection of which dollars fund which line item.
Section 1.2
Obligation Timeline — August through October
Jul 28Starting Liquidity
$4,673.00 available in bank account Liquidity
Aug 1Rent, Utilities & Home Insurance
$650.00 recurring, first of each month.
Aug 12Car Insurance + Existing Monthly Payment
$69.00 + $288.45 = $357.45. Loan repayment has not yet begun (disbursement occurs Aug 21).
Aug 15Tuition Installment
$3,366.00 Paid
Aug 21Loan Disbursement
$5,000.00 received Income. Triggers the $71.62/month repayment obligation beginning the following billing cycle.
Sep 12First Loan Repayment Begins
$71.62 added to the recurring 12th-of-month cluster going forward.
Sep 21Non-Resident Fee Installment Due
$3,366.00 Pending
Oct 19International Fee Installment Due
$3,366.00 Pending
One-TimeCar Payoff
$140.00, no interest — clears the remaining car balance entirely.
Part II
Monthly Cash Flow Model
Recurring obligations are decomposed into a fixed monthly base, then overlaid with the semester payment schedule, the one-time loan disbursement, recurring job income of $2,535/month (based on $13/hr, 9h/day, 5d/week), and a starting liquidity of $4,673 as of July 28, 2026.
Section 2.1
Income Sources & Starting Capital
| Source | Amount | Frequency | Active From |
|---|
| Job Income $13/hr • 7am–4pm • M–F | $2,535.00 | Monthly | Ongoing |
| Loan Disbursement | $5,000.00 | One-time | Aug 21, 2026 |
| Starting Liquidity | $4,673.00 | Initial Balance | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Total Monthly Recurring Income | $2,535.00 | | |
Income Assumption
Job income is calculated as 9 hours/day × 5 days/week × $13/hour = $585/week × 52 weeks / 12 months = $2,535/month. This assumes the 7am–4pm window is paid time (no unpaid lunch break). If a 1-hour unpaid lunch applies (8 paid hours/day), income would be $2,253/month — a difference of $282/month.
Section 2.2
Fixed Recurring Obligations
| Item | Amount | Billing Day | Active From |
|---|
| Rent + Utilities + Home Insurance | $650.00 | 1st | Ongoing |
| Car Insurance | $69.00 | 12th | Ongoing |
| Existing Monthly Payment | $288.45 | 12th | Ongoing |
| New Loan Repayment | $71.62 | 12th | Begins Sep 2026 |
| Food & Miscellaneous | $150.00 | Variable | Modeled as fixed mean |
| Fuel | $120.00 | Variable | Ongoing |
| Emergency Fund Contribution | $50.00 | Variable | Ongoing |
650.00 + 69.00 + 288.45 + 150.00 + 120.00 + 50.00 = $1,327.45
$1,327.45 + 71.62 = $1,399.07
$2,535.00 (income) − $1,399.07 (expenses) = +$1,135.93
Distribution of Steady-State Monthly Expenses
Section 2.3
Semester Payment Overlay & Cash Flow
| Month | Job Income | Other Income | Total Income | Base Expenses | Semester / One-Time | Total Expenses | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Balance |
|---|
| Start (Jul 28) | — | $4,673.00 | $4,673.00 | — | — | — | — | $4,673.00 |
| Aug 2026 | $2,535.00 | $5,000.00 | $7,535.00 | $1,327.45 | $3,506.00 | $4,833.45 | +$2,701.55 | $7,374.55 |
| Sep 2026 | $2,535.00 | $0.00 | $2,535.00 | $1,399.07 | $3,366.00 | $4,765.07 | −$2,230.07 | $5,144.48 |
| Oct 2026 | $2,535.00 | $0.00 | $2,535.00 | $1,399.07 | $3,366.00 | $4,765.07 | −$2,230.07 | $2,914.41 |
| Nov 2026 | $2,535.00 | $0.00 | $2,535.00 | $1,399.07 | $0.00 | $1,399.07 | +$1,135.93 | $4,050.34 |
| Dec 2026 | $2,535.00 | $0.00 | $2,535.00 | $1,399.07 | $0.00 | $1,399.07 | +$1,135.93 | $5,186.27 |
| Jan 2027 | $2,535.00 | $0.00 | $2,535.00 | $1,399.07 | $0.00 | $1,399.07 | +$1,135.93 | $6,322.20 |
| 6-Month Total | $15,210.00 | $9,673.00 | $24,883.00 | $8,323.80 | $10,238.00 | $18,561.80 | +$6,321.20 | $6,322.20 |
Monthly Income vs. Expenses (Aug 2026 – Jan 2027)
Key Insight
With the job income and starting liquidity, the August–October deficit window is more than cushioned. The cumulative balance after October is +$2,914.41, and by January 2027 it reaches +$6,322.20. The model is firmly in positive territory throughout the entire horizon.
Part III
Twelve-Month Statistical Projection
Extending the model to a twelve-month horizon (Aug 2026–Jul 2027) with the job income and $4,673 starting balance. The baseline projection already exceeds the $11,000 savings target. Additional supplemental income accelerates the surplus.
Cumulative Balance Projection — With Job Income, Starting Liquidity & Supplemental Scenarios
Dashed navy line marks the $11,000 savings target. The solid green line is the baseline (job income + loan + starting balance). Each additional scenario layers a constant supplemental monthly income on top of the job income.
Scenario A
Baseline (Job + Loan + $4,673 start)
Monthly income$2,535
Balance @ 12 mo+$13,137.78
Reaches $11K goal?Yes (by Jun 2027)
Scenario B
+$100/mo Supplemental
Extra income / mo$100
Balance @ 12 mo+$14,337.78
Reaches $11K goal?Yes (surplus $3,337.78)
Scenario C
+$200/mo Supplemental
Extra income / mo$200
Balance @ 12 mo+$15,537.78
Reaches $11K goal?Yes (surplus $4,537.78)
Scenario D
+$500/mo Supplemental
Extra income / mo$500
Balance @ 12 mo+$19,137.78
Reaches $11K goal?Yes (surplus $8,137.78)
Interpretation
With the job income alone and the $4,673 starting balance, the 12-month balance reaches $13,137.78 — exceeding the $11,000 goal by $2,137.78. The goal is actually achieved in June 2027, a full month before the 12-month horizon ends. Any supplemental income simply builds a larger buffer.
Part IV
Savings Goal Sensitivity Analysis
The $11,000 savings target is evaluated across three horizons. Because the starting balance and job income already put the model ahead, the table below shows the additional monthly income needed (on top of the $2,535/month job income) to reach the goal earlier than the baseline, or the surplus achieved without any extra income.
| Horizon | Target Date | Projected Balance (Job Income + Start) | Gap to $11,000 | Required Additional Income / Mo |
|---|
| 6 months | Jan 2027 | +$6,322.20 | $4,677.80 | $779.63 |
| 9 months | Apr 2027 | +$9,729.99 | $1,270.01 | $141.11 |
| 12 months | Jul 2027 | +$13,137.78 | Surplus $2,137.78 | $0.00 (already reached) |
$4,673
Starting Liquidity Advantage
Your existing bank balance of $4,673 provides a critical buffer, transforming the short-term deficit window into a consistently positive balance throughout the entire 12‑month horizon.
$1,136
Monthly Surplus (Steady State)
Job income ($2,535) minus monthly expenses ($1,399.07) = $1,135.93 surplus each month after the semester payments conclude. This surplus is the engine driving the positive trajectory.
Strategic Takeaway
The $11,000 goal is already achievable within the 12‑month horizon without any additional income. To reach the goal sooner (e.g., in 6 months), you'd need an extra $779.63/month. For a 9‑month timeline, only $141.11/month extra is needed — about 11 hours of additional work per month at $13/hr.
Part V
Findings & Recommendations
Section 5.1
Key Findings
- The payment plan divides total charges into three equal $3,366.00 installments; the per-fee ledger is an accounting allocation, not a reflection of which specific installment funds which fee.
- Job income of $2,535/month ($13/hr, 9h/day, 5d/wk) combined with $4,673 starting liquidity transforms the model from a deficit trajectory to a consistently positive surplus trajectory.
- Steady-state monthly expenses (post-October) are $1,399.07, yielding a monthly surplus of $1,135.93 with the job income.
- September and October each carry a $3,366.00 semester installment with no offsetting income beyond the job, but the starting balance ensures the cumulative balance never dips below +$2,914.41.
- The 12-month cumulative balance with job income and starting liquidity reaches +$13,137.78 — exceeding the $11,000 savings target by $2,137.78. The goal is achieved in June 2027.
- To reach the $11,000 goal in 9 months, only $141.11/month extra income is needed. In 6 months, $779.63/month is required.
- The emergency fund is being built at $50/month against a $1,399.07/month burn rate; at this pace it would take roughly 28 months to accumulate a single month's expenses in reserve.
Section 5.2
Recommendations
- Maintain the job income as a baseline — the surplus it generates is the primary driver of the positive trajectory. Any disruption to this income would reduce the surplus.
- Since the $11,000 goal is already reached, consider setting a higher target — for example, $15,000 or $18,000. With the current surplus, you'll have $13,137.78 in 12 months; a $500/month side gig would push that to $19,137.78.
- To accelerate the goal, target an extra $141/month for a 9‑month timeline, or $780/month for a 6‑month timeline. These are achievable through a few extra work hours or a small side gig.
- Treat the car payoff as a quick win — clearing the $140.00 balance removes a line item permanently at negligible cost.
- Revisit food and fuel together — combined, these total $270.00/month; a 10–15% reduction ($27–$40.50/month) would further accelerate savings.
- Re-run this model monthly against actual statement data once payments post, to replace the deterministic projection with an empirically updated one.
Appendix
Methodology & Assumptions
- All payments are modeled as posting exactly on their stated due date; no grace periods or float are assumed.
- Food/misc ($150) is explicitly variable per the source data but is treated as a fixed monthly mean for projection purposes — actual monthly variance is not modeled.
- The new loan repayment ($71.62/mo) is assumed to begin on the first 12th-of-month billing cycle following the Aug 21 disbursement, i.e. Sep 12, 2026.
- Job income: Calculated as 9 hours/day × 5 days/week × $13/hour = $585/week × 52 weeks / 12 months = $2,535.00/month. This assumes the 7am–4pm window is paid time (no unpaid lunch break). If an unpaid 1-hour lunch applies, the monthly income would be $2,253.33/month (8 paid hours/day).
- Starting liquidity: $4,673.00 as of July 28, 2026 is added as an initial balance. This figure is treated as cash available for all obligations.
- All figures are deterministic point estimates (n = 1, no confidence intervals) since the underlying inputs are fixed obligations rather than sampled data.
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